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Name: Dan
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RE: Rep. Don Marostica must be stopped

Dear Jan and Rep. Marostica,
 
First, thank you for your reply. I am aware there is no obligation to respond to an individual who is not a constituent to an elected official and thus, appreciate your taking the time to do so.
 
As a former aide to Representative Tancredo and the current leader of a highly opinionated organization, the Colorado Jewish Republicans, hearing and responding to both sides of an issue is something familiar to me.
 
On behalf of the J-GOP members, we would very much like to see if our May 21st meeting would be an opportunity to address our group as well as some of our friends in the Colorado Prager Group (if they choose to join us for dinner).
 
Dennis Prager, in a May 13, 2008 opinion editorial titled "If On the Wrong Track, Why Go Left? " stated, "If there are any values that can meaningfully be called "American," self-reliance and limited government are among them." It would be very interesting to hear why the state, after passing Ref C, repealing the Taxpayer Bill of Rights' ratchet for 5 years, could not figure out how to reduce the budget by 2.5% out of $16,000,000,000.
 
Reading the editorial articles copied to me (one being by Boulder Democrat Rollie Heath) revealed Montana Resident Steve Arveschoug "still supports the 6 percent limit" and that Arizona Resident Mike Bird "said it was unfortunate that the 6 percent limit has "ratcheted down" general fund spending by more than $1 billion over the last decade." Perhaps spending an additional billion dollars of taxpayer funds has some redeeming value?
 
One can only conclude the quote you cited in your reply, from former Rep. Arveschough, may have been taken out of context or is from some other source. Please feel free to clarify your reply.
 
On behalf of the J-GOP, I look forward to hearing if you would like to address our members at our May 21st meeting.
 
Links:
 
 

Sincerely,
Dan Kopelman
President, Colorado Jewish GOP
Aurora, CO


From: Don Marostica [mailto:Don@donmarostica.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 24, 2009 6:01 PM
To: Dan Kopelman
Subject: RE: Rep. Don Marostica must be stopped

Dear Dan,

On behalf of Rep. Don Marostica, thanks for copying the Rep. on your message.  It's good to hear all sides of the issue, any issue.

If you would like me to set up a meeting with you and the Rep. to share your thoughts in person, and allow him to share in-kind how he arrived at his position, I'm happy to coordinate this meeting.

I’m not certain whether you are familiar with Dennis Prager, the conservative talk show radio host, as a member of the Dennis Prager Colorado Group, I (we)seek to arrive at clarity, which is a Prager value.

I've attached two recent articles, where one of the original sponsors of the bill, former Rep. Steve Arveschoug, says the bill was passed "at a time when we weren't worried about an actual decline in the economy."   See links to articles with recent quotes from Rep. Arveschoug.

Links:  

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_11744305

http://www.politicswest.com/36446/repeal_arveschoug_bird_hurray_bird_says

Sincerely,

Jan Cook

Aide

Rep. Don Marostica

303.866.2947

 

From: Dan Kopelman [dan@dankopelman.com]
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2009 10:56 PM
To:  mike.may.house@state.co.us
Cc: 'Nancy Spence'; david balmer; Dick Wadhams; Don Marostica
Subject: Rep. Don Marostica must be stopped

Dear Minority Leader May,
 
Because Rep. Don Marostica is in a position to negatively impact all Colorado residents by undermining, yet again, our rights as taxpayers to a limited government by removing the 6% Arveschoug-Bird limit, please consider removing him from his position with the JBC and replace him with a more responsible representative.
 
He should not and does not represent the majority of Republicans and will only do further damage to our party.
 
Sincerely,
Dan Kopelman
President, Colorado Jewish GOP
Aurora, CO
 
 
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NOW I GET IT!

George W. Bush was accused of:

 -being arrogant

 -shredding the Constitution

 -making secret deals to pay off his cronies

 -being a puppet of Carl Rove

 -being an “illegitimate” President

 -taking away our rights

 -being a dictator

 -ushering in a new “McCarthy era” and impinging on our rights to free speech

Me thinks thou did protest too much.

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A Response to Ken Gordon

PORTIONS OF AN E-MAIL BY KEN GORDON forwarded to me

1.  Respect the Minority.
 
...The Republican party cares more about freedom and the individual,
There is, however, a tendency to look at the other party as the enemy. 
 
...Democrats need people to respect and have confidence in the actions of government. 
 
...Too often, Americans act like they are the children and that the elected officials  are the adults.  In fact the reverse is true.
Dear Ken,
 
Someone forwarded your message to me and I was amazed at some of the things you said with which I was impressed and mostly agree   (I've pasted them above)  Bravo on that score!
 
A few brief comments:
 
Interesting how the laments of people in the minority shift to exactly the opposite when they get in power and visa versa.  The viciousness and over the top hatred of Bush was tolerated (from him often, and to the dismay of many grassroots Republicans) and allowed to go unchecked for months.  Now, those same people want to suppress dissent in the service of "unity." It's a little too drastic and obvious.
 
Second, how in the world does a people respect a government that will confirm a tax cheat to head the Treasury?  The level of corruption everywhere in the higher echelons of government concerns me greatly.

This is like putting an arsonist in charge of the fire department.  Why aren't Democrats screaming?  Because he's their guy. 
 
Third, why is it that there is NO limit to what Democrats see as the purview of government?  Do they EVER say No to anything?  I realize that herein lies the fundamental disagreement between left and right and we will never agree, but that is the real discussion here, yet Republicans are made to be evil, selfish, homophobic, etc. etc. etc. ad infinitim, simply because they want to limit government's power.  In light of the corruption aforementioned, that's not such an outrageous concern, is it?
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Reich's Rant and What's to come.........

Robert Reich’s ridiculous prejudice against “white male construction workers” is proof positive that appeasing liberal stupidity only emboldens, if it is possible, greater stupidity.  This form of bigotry has been tolerated and even encouraged for so long, it is now the accepted "thinking" on the subject.  At the risk of making too broad a generalization about liberals (heaven forbid!), these mental midgets are not able to recognize their own rhetoric of the great “sea change” because they have no respect for the obvious replacement:  rewarding MERIT, regardless of race, gender or ethnicity.  The tragedy of the age of these twisted values as the accepted norm has only just begun.  Our only weapon is to speak out louder and clearer than ever before, with no apologies.
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My Visit with the Log Cabin Republicans

So...I was recently the guest speaker at a meeting of the Log Cabin Republicans, a group more courageous and filled with independence of spirit than even the Jewish or Black Republicans.   In this group, I was a minority within a minority, squared--the only female and the only straight person.
My theme was:  The Agony & Ecstasy of Being Different and Tolerating Disapproval in a Free Society.
 
We had a fascinating discussion about everything from "Gay Marriage" to the incoming President. 
Then, one of the members said something I think is worth repeating far and wide, because it's so true.  He said:
 
"I have encountered much more hostility as a Republican in a group of gay people than I ever have as a gay person in a group of Republicans." 
 
Truer words were never spoken.  I do hope you let your liberal friends know the truth about their professed "tolerance."
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STEYN COLUMN FABUOUS AS ALWAYS



The ‘Oldest Hatred’
It didn’t get that way without an ability to adapt.

By Mark Steyn

In Toronto, anti-Israel demonstrators yell “You are the brothers of pigs!”, and a protester complains to his interviewer that “Hitler didn’t do a good job.”

more... [The complete article can be read at NationalReview.com or on JewishWorldReview.com]
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Office of Public Liaison - Statements on the Situation in Gaza

Jewish Leaders,

 Please find below the statements made yesterday, December 27th, by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Gordon Johndroe, Spokesman for the National Security Council, regarding the Situation in Gaza.

 Statement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the Situation in Gaza

The United States is deeply concerned about the escalating violence in Gaza. We strongly condemn the repeated rocket and mortar attacks against Israel and hold Hamas responsible for breaking the ceasefire and for the renewal of violence there. The ceasefire must be restored immediately and fully respected. The United States calls on all concerned to protect innocent lives and to address the urgent humanitarian needs of the people of Gaza.

 Statement by Gordon Johndroe, Spokesman for the National Security Council

 Hamas' continued rocket attacks into Israel must cease if the violence is to stop. Hamas must end its terrorist activities if it wishes to play a role in the future of the Palestinian people. The United States urges Israel to avoid civilian casualties as it targets Hamas in Gaza.

 Thank you,

 The White House

Office of Public Liaison

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Is it possible to save the GOP in Colorado from itself?

One can only wonder when there are individuals who would spread rumors and make false accusations among fellow Republicans while hiding behind veil of anonymity.

If you are a Republican and feel there is some Republican individual or some conservative group that is heading the wrong direction, simply say so. The media will pick up the conflict either way, but since the Left has made an art of dividing and conquering, aiding abetting the Democrats in their efforts is not terribly useful.

A great example of on-line, human debris, the George Soros/Media Matters inspired “ColoradoPols(dot)com” and the "Colorado 'Independant'". These anonymous web logs are little more than a rumor mills for the Colorado Left, where anyone can (and often do) say anything to see if it gets picked up by the Denver Post or Rocky Mountain News. The unfortunate fact is there are plenty of people who wallow in the bile they produce simply because it is interesting. Then again, the NationalEnquirer.com and WeeklyWorldNews.com are still quite popular too, at least they attribute their “original” stories… some of the time.

The funny thing is, the “legitimate” papers now quote these unattributed web sites as news sources. It seems reporting is so difficult that simply regurgitating rumors is now an acceptable form of journalism.

The question is simple, the answer is difficult. The GOP in Colorado has managed to loose its way and is in need of a philosophical rudder. We have many leaders, but coalescing around common ground has been elusive.

I propose a return to the principles attributed to Dr. Walter H. Judd (R-Minnesota 5th District, 1943-63):

The Four Basic Principles of the Republican Party (The Party For All The People)
1. Protect the rights of the individual
2. Protect the free enterprise system.
3. Reduce government to the lowest practical level.
4. Endorse and practice fiscal responsibility.

I am tired of being berated as a Jewish Repulican by left-wing apologists in my own Jewish community, but I am also weary of a GOP that trys to out flank the Left with feel-good legislation that costs taxpayers more and does little to follow any principles at all.

Change is here, now we fight to get our principles back.

-Dan Kopelman

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Remarks by President Bush at White House Hannukah Party

THE PRESIDENT: Please be seated. Welcome to the White House. You may have heard I've had a pretty eventful weekend. (Laughter.)

So I slipped out Saturday night to Andrews Air Force Base, boarded Air Force One, and landed in Baghdad, Iraq, on Sunday afternoon. It was an unbelievable experience, it really was, to stand next to the President of a democracy and hold my hand over my heart as they played the national anthem in front of one of Saddam Hussein's palaces. I then had -- (applause) -- and then I had the honor to thank our brave troops who have helped make the transformation in Iraq possible.

Mrs. Laura Bush poses Monday, Dec. 15, 2008, in the White House kitchen with the rabbis who supervised the kitchen's koshering for the annual Hanukkah party. From left are Rabbi Mendel Minkowitz, Rabbi Binyomin Steinmetz and Rabbi Levi Shemtov. White House photo by Joyce N. Boghosian This morning we landed in Afghanistan. I spoke to American forces serving courageously to make sure that Afghanistan never becomes a safe haven from which the killers could launch attacks on the homeland.

And then I met with President Karzai, who is determined to help the young democracy survive. And so he said, why don't you hang around for a while? And I said, well, you don't understand. (Laughter.) I need to get back to the White House for an important event. (Laughter.) The Hanukkah reception is always one of the most special events of the season. Laura and I are pleased to be with so many friends. And we are honored to gather with leaders of the Jewish community to celebrate our final Hanukkah here in the White House.

I want to thank our Attorney General for joining us. General, I appreciate you and Susan joining us. I am proud to be here with one of America's great United States senators, Joe Lieberman -- (applause) -- his greatness made possible by his wife Hadassah, I might add. (Laughter.) And one of the young leaders of the United States Congress, Eric Cantor, and his wife Diana. (Applause.) And we're proud to be here with Kol Zimra, as well, who will perform later.

The story of Hanukkah recalls the miraculous victory of a small band of patriots against tyranny, and the oil that burned for eight nights. Through centuries of exile and persecution, Jews have lit the menorah. Each year, they behold its glow with faith in the power of God, and love for His greatest gift -- freedom.

This Hanukkah we celebrate another miraculous victory -- the 60th anniversary of the founding of the state of Israel. When President Harry Truman led the world in recognizing Israel in May of 1948, many wondered whether the small nation could possibly survive. Yet from the first days of independence, the people of Israel defied dire predictions. With determination and hard work, they turned a rocky desert into fertile soil. They built a thriving democracy, a strong economy, and one of the mightiest military forces on earth. Like the Maccabees, Israel has defended itself bravely against enemies seeking its destruction. And today, Israel is a light unto the nations -- and one of America's closest friends.

This evening, we have the great privilege of celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary and Hanukkah in a very special way. Thanks to the generosity of the Truman Library, we are fortunate to light the menorah presented to President Truman in 1951 as a symbol of friendship by Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion.

A decade after President Truman received this gift, he visited Prime Minister Ben-Gurion for one of the last times. As they parted, Ben-Gurion told the President that as a foreigner he could not judge President Truman's place in American history, but the President's courageous decision to recognize the new state of Israel gave him an immortal place in Jewish history. Those words filled the President's eyes with uncharacteristic tears. And later, Ben-Gurion would say he rarely had seen somebody so moved.

And so tonight I'm deeply moved to welcome the grandsons of these two great men -- Clifton Truman Daniel and Yariv Ben-Eliezer -- to light the Truman menorah together.

Laura and I wish all the people of Jewish faith a happy Hanukkah and many joyous Hanukkahs in the years ahead. Thank you. (Applause.)
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A Perspective on the Jewish Vote

By Don Feder

Back in the 1980s, during the euphoria of the Reagan-era, Neo-cons like Norman Podhoretz and Irving Kristol predicted a seismic shift in Jewish voting patterns.

Once American Jews discovered that voting Republican was crucial for the survival of the Jewish state, they’d naturally align themselves with the party that actually believes in national security, we were assured.

It never happened.

After this year’s election – in which Barack Hussein Obama got 77% of the Jewish vote – we can confidently say it never will. Once again, in 2008, most American Jews voted their religion – liberalism.

Some minorities have a clearer perception of where their interests lie. According to the American Muslim Task Force for Civil Rights and Elections, nearly 90% of Muslims voted for Obama, only 2% for McCain – smart Muslims, dumb Jews.

If there was ever a year in which Jews should have been forced to reconsider their robotic loyalty to the Democratic Party, 2008 was it

The Democratic presidential candidate should have set off alarm bells in the head of the average Jewish voter – from his whack-job pastor’s anti-Israel ravings, to his multiple ties to Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, to his Middle East donors, to his terrorist cheering section, to his refusal to condemn Jimmy Carter’s meeting with Hamas – Jews should have broken out in a cold sweat at the thought of this ideologue directing U.S. military and foreign policy.

That they didn’t reflects the triumph of the heart over the head.

It’s not that Jewish voters were unaware of the reality of Barack. The Republican Jewish Coalition spent beaucoup bucks broadcasting the facts through e-mailings to Jewish voters and ads in Jewish periodicals. Jewish voters just didn’t care.

My friend Rabbi Aryeh Spero says roughly 40% of Jewish voters are intellectually tied to the left – marching in lockstep to the beat of MoveOn.org, the anti-war movement, George Soros, Barney Frank, etc.

Along with other dogmatic utopians, they actually believe that any enemies we have are of our own making, that America has generally been a force for oppression and exploitation in the world, that terrorism is born of poverty and despair (rather than a murderous fanaticism), that America must do perpetual penance for past mistakes, and that a Palestinian state will usher in the messianic age. I could go on, but it’s too depressing.

Another 25% Spero describes as “traditional, though not necessarily Orthodox. They take into account what’s best for America, Israel and Jewish survival.” They usually vote Republican.

The last 35% are not inveterate leftists. Intellectually, they may understand the dangers of voting for an Obama. But they are connected to the Democratic Party by an emotional umbilical cord. In the end, no matter how convincing the evidence or sound the reasoning, they’ll go with their hearts.

Hence, through a process of self-hypnosis, most Jews have programmed themselves to believe the impossible.

In the American Jewish Committee’s 2008 survey of Jewish Opinion (conducted September 8-21), by 53% to 36%, Jews said the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions in dealing with terrorism than the GOP - doubtless on the principle that appeasement works.

By the same lopsided margin (52% to 32%), those surveyed said Democrats also were more likely to do the right thing when it comes to Israel. They probably reached that conclusion when Jimmy Carter pronounced Israel an apartheid state, and Nancy Pelosi crawled to Syria, wearing a headscarf.

That McCain had an unblemished, 20-year record of support for Israel, Obama is surrounded by advisors who are hostile to Israel, and Iranian Television described the latter as “highly educated” and “eloquent,” mattered not in the least.

The AJC survey highlighted another reality. Among American Jews generally, support for Israel is a low priority.

When asked: “Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2008 presidential campaign,” 54% said the economy, 11% picked health care and only 3% chose Israel.

To the question, “Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons,” 47% of Jews said they’d oppose America moving to save Israel from nuclear annihilation, 42% would support it, and 11% were unsure.

This is perhaps the clearest indication that a significant segment of the Jewish community either doesn’t give a damn about Israel or is delusional.

Even though Iran is led by a raving anti-Semite and Holocaust-denier – who’s said Israel “should be wiped off the face of the Earth” – even though Iran was voted most likely to commit nuclear suicide if it could take Israel with it, a plurality of Jews still said they’d oppose U.S. military action to forestall a second Holocaust.

Hey, Pat Buchanan, most Jewish voters who’ve taken a stand on Iran agree with you! No wonder there were so many Buchanan votes in Palm Beach County in 2000.

On one crucial point, there must be no confusion: There’s nothing remotely Jewish about the Jewish vote.

As Jewish author Dennis Prager notes, if there was a connection between Judaism and liberalism, those Jews grounded in Torah and most committed to living a Jewish life, would be the most liberal. Democratic presidential candidates would carry Borough Park and Crown Heights in Brooklyn by a landslide every time, while Manhattan’s Upper West Side would be painted red.

The opposite is the case.

The AJC poll found that as Jewish observance went up, support for Obama went down. Obama had the support of just 13% of Orthodox Jews, compared to 59% of those affiliated with Conservative Judaism (which bears no relation to political conservatism) and 62% of Reform Jews. McCain got 78% of the Orthodox vote.

Exit polling showed that of those American Jews living in Israel (overwhelmingly Orthodox) who cast absentee ballots in the U.S. election, 76% voted for McCain.

The term Jewish vote is meaningless. It signifies nothing. Today, most Americans who call themselves Jews are ethnically or nostalgically Jewish. They may, occasionally, participate in Jewish rituals involving dreidels or bagels. They are not, however, Jewish in the sense that their grandparents or great-grandparents were – not even close.

In this regard, they are like so-called Catholic voters. For most, their Catholicism consists of being born into a Catholic family and attending mass on special occasions.

Their knowledge of Catholic dogma is nearly nonexistent. Most think the pronouncements of the Bishop of Rome quaint at best, but feel no obligation to follow his prescriptions.

Thus, 56% of “Catholic voters” cast their ballots in this election for the candidate who, as an Illinois legislator, voted for infanticide, and – in the past campaign – promised to allow the federal judiciary to impose gay marriage on the states, by repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act.

How hopeless are Jewish voters? By a margin of 3-to-1, they voted for the man who:
Was the candidate of choice of terrorists and totalitarians. In April, Ahmed Yousef, a top Hamas political advisor, called Obama a “great man, with great principles” and “a vision to change.” The ruling regimes in Iran, Syria and Libya fairly salivated at the prospect of an Obama presidency.

Whose pastor and mentor of 19 years compared Zionism to “white racism,” accused Israel of imposing “injustice… and racism” on the Palestinians, and gave an award to Louis Farrakhan (who once called Judaism a “gutter religion”)

Who was endorsed by the most dangerous anti-Semite in America (Farrakhan) who called him the “hope of the entire world”

Who attended Farrakhan’s 1995 Million Man March, and later lauded the neo-Nuremberg rally as an event that brought African-American men together and showed they were ready “to make a commitment to bring about change in our communities and our lives”

Who sat on the board of the Woods Fund when it gave a total of $75,000 over two years to the rabidly anti-Israel Arab-American Action Network

Whose friend Rashid Khalidi, formerly a PLO spokesman, took over Columbia University’s Middle-East-studies program in 2003, which, according to the National Review’s Andrew McCarthy, “he has since maintained as a bubbling cauldron of anti-Semitism”

Whose first director of Muslim outreach, Mazen Ashabi, quit after the Wall Street Journal linked him to Jamal Said – fingered by the Justice Department as a Hamas fundraiser.

Who received over $29,000 in donations from Hamas-controlled Gaza

Whose election will herald a sharp decline in Zionist influence in Washington, the Rev. Jesse Jackson predicted

Who said the “legitimate claims” of Hezbollah are “weakened” by its violence

Who said the terrorist attacks of 9/11 grew out of “a climate of poverty and ignorance, helplessness and despair” – to which we must not overreact

It’s interesting to speculate on why Republicans, in the face of bitter experience, determinedly pursue the Jewish vote.

Jews represent just 3% of the electorate – though they are more heavily concentrated in swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

But Republicans, many of them serious Christians, see themselves as the standard-bearers of our Judeo-Christian heritage. How does that work when the descendants of those who stood at Sinai reject them?

The answer: Those Jews also reject the Judeo-Christian ethic and the historic mission of the Jewish people – to repair the world under the rule of God.

The Republican Jewish Coalition should close its doors. Its budget, and anything else the GOP spends on wooing Jewish voters, should be equally divided between building more Orthodox Jewish day schools (thereby encouraging the Orthodox to have more children) and transporting evangelical Christians to the polls on Election Day.

That would do more to help Israel and to assure Jewish survival than the money wasted quadrennially on trying to bring a message of reason to the mega-meshugeneh.
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Congratulations Eric Cantor!

The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) congratulates Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) on being elected the House minority whip. Additionally, the RJC congratulates all the new and returning Republican leaders in the House and Senate on their leadership roles.

"As a rising star in the Republican party and an outstanding legislator, Rep. Cantor is a source of tremendous pride for the Jewish community. While the many challenges facing this country, and our party, are daunting, with Rep. Cantor taking on new leadership responsibilities as House minority whip, this is an occasion to be hopeful and to look towards the future," said RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks.
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The Jewish Vote in 2008 and the Exit Polls

By Richard Baehr of The American Thinker

Once again, as in 2006, Jewish Democrats are trumpeting the results of the national exit poll, which this year seems to show a very solid win for Barack Obama over John McCain among Jewish voters. And once again, as in 2006, anyone who has a clue about the exit polls and how they are conducted, should be much more cautious than the NJDC about interpreting the results. In 2006, the national exit poll surveyed about 200 Jews out of a national sample of 13,000, barely 1.5% of the voters interviewed. This year, about 2% of the combined 20,000 exit poll interviews conducted on the street or by phone were Jews, or about 400 in total.

Jews make up about 3% of the electorate, about 50% higher than their share of the population, and in the 2004 national exit poll, 3% of those surveyed were Jewish. Why has the national exit poll under-represented Jewish voters in the last two elections? Could that matter in terms of whether the national exit poll data accurately represented how Jews voted in the last two elections?

The national exit poll survey does not purport to be a random sample of voters, either nationally, in any state, or among small subgroups such as Jewish voters. If a pollster were trying to conduct such a survey for the Jewish vote , then Jewish voters in various parts of the country, and of various synagogue groupings -- Orthodox, Conservative, Reform , and unaffiliated Jews, would all be included in such a survey, if their numbers were sizable as a share of the total Jewish vote.

The people who conduct the national exit poll survey admit that their interviewers tend to be young, and more likely to conduct interviews with certain voters than others (over- representing Democrats and liberals). This is why on Tuesday night last week, many networks did not call some states for Obama despite big leads for him in the exit polls for these states. When the analysts compared the exit poll data in certain precincts in a few battleground states with actual tabulated vote totals, the exit poll data consistently overstated the Obama share of the vote.

Might Orthodox Jewish voters, who are far more likely to vote Republican, be underrepresented in an exit poll survey? How likely is it that Orthodox Jews would walk up to be interviewed by an exit pollster, or have an exit pollster show up at their polling place in Crown Heights or Williamsburg, or Skokie, compared to a pollster appearing to interview more liberal Jewish voters on the upper West Side of Manhattan or some affluent Jewish suburb?

According to the national exit polls, Jews voted for Obama over McCain 78% to 21%. The NJDC hailed this victory, since it was by a bigger margin than the margin by which Kerry beat Bush among Jewish voters in 2004 according to the exit poll data from that year (74%-25%). All things being equal, why should it be a surprise that Obama did better among Jews than Kerry did, since Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.4% nationally, and Obama won the popular vote by 6.5% nationally, a 9% shift between 2004 and 2008. By this measure the Jewish margin for Obama was 8% greater than it was for Kerry, while the national margin among all voters for Obama was 9% higher than it was for Kerry. This would suggest Obama slightly under- performed among Jewish voters, according to exit poll data.

Remember too that in 2006, the NJDC was boasting of the exit poll data from the Congressional elections which showed Democrats winning 87% of the Jewish vote. If those numbers were real, then Obama lost ground among Jewish voters the last two years, only getting 78% of the Jewish vote this time.

The NJDC is also happy that Obama did so much better among Jews in the exit poll data than he seemed to be doing in polls of Jewish voters conducted earlier in the summer and fall by other groups (e.g., Gallup, the AJC, J-Street, Quinnipiac polls in various states) Some of those earlier surveys showed Obama winning by a 2 to 1 margin among Jewish voters, and later in the election cycle, by a 3 to 1 margin, similar to the 2004 exit poll results. Obama moved up considerably in national polls of all voters from the time the first Jewish specific surveys were conducted, so one would expect his Jewish voter numbers to have moved as well. The latest Jewish voter surveys conducted by professional pollsters close to the time of the election suggesting a similar percentage of the Jewish vote for Obama as for John Kerry in 2004, are more reliable than the national exit poll as a measure of how Jews voted in 2008. These were professional surveys, with a stated margin of error, and random sampling, neither of which is associated with the national exit poll subgroup of Jewish voters.

To show the problem with putting too much weight in the national exit poll, look at the results for gay and lesbian voters, who were 4% of those interviewed both in 2004 and 2008, a larger share of the national exit poll survey than Jews were in either year. In the 2004 national exit poll, gays and lesbians backed John Kerry over George Bush by 77-23%, a 54% margin. But in the 2008 exit poll, gays and lesbians voted for Obama over McCain by 70% to 27%, a 43% margin. Why would the margin for the Democratic candidate decline by 11% among gays and lesbians when the national margin for Obama was 9% greater than it was for Kerry? Did Obama have any weakness among gay and lesbian voters that Kerry did not have? I cannot think of one.

It is possible that the gay and lesbian vote recorded in the national exit poll may have been off by 20% or more in either 2004 or 2008 or both surveys were off by that amount combined. By the same token, taking the 78% to 21% exit poll victory for Obama over McCain among Jewish voters as gospel is equally suspect. If you do not know the margin of error for a survey sub-sample, how certain can you be that the survey results are a good snapshot of the community being surveyed? If the survey group was not a random sample of voters in that subgroup, what weight can you give the survey result?

I think it is highly likely that Obama defeated McCain by a decisive margin among Jewish voters. Beyond that, I can not venture any opinion based on the national exit poll data. Anyone who reads too much into that exit poll data, is really projecting what they want the results to mean, rather than what they reveal.
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Final Tally on the Jewish Vote: Dems 77% GOP 22%

The first exit poll on the Jewish vote is out, and it has Barack Obama bettering John Kerry's Jewish vote total from four years ago.

The preliminary poll, which could be updated tomorrow, has Obama receiving 77 percent of the Jewish vote, to just 22 percent for John McCain. (An earlier version of the poll had Obama winning by a 78-21 margin.) Kerry garnered 74 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004, and Al Gore won 79 percent of the Jewish vote (with a Jewish running mate) eight years ago. The Jewish vote was 2 percent of the poll sample.

If those numbers hold up, it would vindicate Jewish Democrats like Rep. Robert Wexler, who claimed this summer -- to skeptical reporters at the Democratic convention -- that Obama would hit traditional levels of the Jewish vote for Democratic presidential candidates. At the time, Obama had been totaling slightly more than 60 percent in polls of Jewish voters.

It also hands a defeat for the GOP that hoped to increase their share of the Jewish vote from 25 percent in the 2004 Presidential election. Looks like its time for the GOP to go back to their core values once again and remake the party to look more like the one that elected Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Can anyone spell "J-I-N-D-A-L" for 2012?
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RJC Congratulates President-Elect Obama

Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) Executive Director Matt Brooks issued the following statement today:

"The Republican Jewish Coalition congratulates President-elect Barack Obama on his hard-fought victory. Throughout this election, the Republican Jewish Coalition raised critical policy issues in the Jewish community. The RJC is proud of the role we played in facilitating this important debate. In a very challenging and unprecedented political year, the GOP maintained the inroads it has made in the Jewish community.

"Compared to John Kerry's results four years ago, Obama increased his level of support among all voters. Yet Obama's gains among Jewish voters were smaller than among other key demographic groups.

"Among Catholic voters, African-American voters, and Latino voters, Obama's numbers increased from a range of 7 to 13 points compared to John Kerry's numbers four years ago. Yet his increase among Jewish voters was only 4 points ahead of Kerry's numbers in 2004. Nor did Obama's increase exceed the support that Democrats achieved in 1992, 1996 and 2000. This data clearly shows that there are still nagging doubts in the Jewish community about how President-elect Obama will lead on important issues affecting the Jewish community and our national security.

"Because of these doubts, and the unprecedented efforts of the Republican Jewish Coalition to foster a national debate about issues of critical importance to the Jewish community, many Democratic entities such as the Obama for President campaign, the National Jewish Democratic Council, J-Street and the Jewish Council for Education and Research, spent massive amounts of resources to reach the Jewish community - a constituency where they normally spend few resources on outreach efforts.

"The Republican Jewish Coalition's aggressive efforts to inform the Jewish community ensured a vigorous debate about key policy issues. The Democrats were forced to address the concerns the Jewish community has with the policies of Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. While we are disappointed with the overall outcome of the election, the Republican Jewish Coalition is pleased that the GOP maintained the recent inroads, at the national level, it has made in the Jewish community.

"It is our hope that President-elect Obama will support policies that strengthen America and Israel. As we move forward, the RJC will maintain its role as an important voice engaging in substantive discourse on the issues of critical importance to the Jewish community."

You can see their report via this link:
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