Posted by
J-GOP on Friday, January 11, 2008 1:37:50 PM
Since the New Hampshire Primary, the new media has been wringing their hands in search of an explanation as to why their lavish predictions of a double-digit Obama win were so wrong.
The answer that they have chosen is called "The Bradley Effect", aptly named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite a healthy lead (ranging from 9 to 22 percent in various polls) over his opponent. Some pundits have even argued that white voters told pollsters they were intent on supporting the black candidate but that deep-seated racism got the best of them when it came time to pull the leverage behind the voting curtain.
Now according to Commentary Magazine, a similar situation is taking place with Jewish voters that plan on voting for the Republican candidate. Being a Democrat is almost instinctive for American Jews and being a GOP supporter is akin to eating pastrami on white bread with mayonnaise. As Martin Peretz wrote in 2004, signaling his distaste for John Kerry:
"Like many American Jews, I was brought up to believe that if I pulled the Republican lever on the election machine my right hand would wither and, as the Psalmist says, my tongue would cleave to the roof of my mouth."
But as the Commentary Magazine article explains, there may very well be a block of Jewish voters this election year that will pull the lever for the Republican candidate, but tell their friends that they voted for the Democrat:
"Since 9/11, I’m convinced there is a far larger proportion of Jews than the reported 25 percent that voted Republican in 2004. These Jews–perfectly happy calling themselves Bill Clinton Democrats but more hawkish than a party now headed by Nancy Pelosi–don’t want to admit to anyone that they supported a Republican because everyone in their social circle would call them meshugeh." (a crazy person).
The prospects of what a Democratic President in combination with a Democratic-lead Congress will do with the war in Iraq, our involvement in Afghanistan, the war on Islamic-terrorism, and our relations with Iran, one can only hope that this perception rings true come November.